LightCounting Celebrates 15 Years in 2019
Optical communications research firm reaches notable anniversary and expands coverage to new market segments
EUGENE, Oregon -- The global optical communications market staged an impressive recovery since the burst of the telecom bubble of 2000-2001. High-speed optical connectivity not only supports long haul and metro networks, but it also is widely used in access and enterprise networks, datacenters and supercomputers. Suppliers of optical components deserve most of the credit for this achievement of market recovery. Reducing complexity and cost of optics was critical for enabling new applications.
“LightCounting was started in 2004 during a challenging time for the telecommunications industry,” said Vladimir Kozlov, Ph.D., CEO of LightCounting Market Research. “Over the past fifteen years, we built the largest and the most experienced team of analysts covering this industry. Today, our research is used by the leading suppliers of optical components and many of their customers. We continue to expand our coverage as technologies originally developed for communications enter industrial and consumer markets. In 2018 we added a report on 3D sensors for facial recognition in smartphones. Looking ahead to this year, our research roadmap includes LIDARs and quantum computers among other new topics.”
Sales of next generation products in cloud datacenters and wireless fronthaul are expected to lead market growth in 2019. Several of LightCounting reports will be addressing these segments, including new technologies and business strategies of suppliers targeting them.
Deployments of optics in China set up a record in 2016, but declined in 2017-2018. The latest information on demand from optical connectivity from Chinese service providers and leading cloud companies is the topics of January 2019 report titled “Market for Optics in China”.
LightCounting reports and service products are designed to help the executives in the global optical communications industry plan and run their businesses. We support decision-making based on facts and data with realistic projections. Our research covers the entire industry supply chain with in-depth analysis of the market for the optical components and modules.
View our recently published reports and 2019 Research Roadmap:
- Next Generation Access Optics, November 2018
- Market Forecast Report and Database, October 2018
- 3D Sensing in Smartphones Report, October 2018
- High Speed Ethernet Optics, September 2018
- Mega Datacenter Optics, June 2018
- Impact of Cloud Services on the Telecom Industry, June 2018
- State of the Industry Report, May 2018
- Integrated Optical Devices, May 2018
3D Sensing for Self-Driving Cars Reaches the Peak of Inflated Expectations
LightCounting releases a new report addressing illumination in smartphones and automotive lidarIn 2019, the market for VCSEL (vertical cavity surface-emitting laser) illumination in smartphones will exceed $1.0 billion – now nearly triple the size of the market for communications VCSELs. That’s quite remarkable for a market that didn’t exist three years ago.3D sensing in smartphones felt like an overnight sensation, but the technology foundations were laid down years ago with Microsoft’s Kinect – a motion-sensing peripheral for gamers released in 2010 but discontinued in 2017 after lackluster sales. Lumentum supplied lasers to the Kinect almost a decade before the iPhone opportunity emerged; the company was ready to profit from the iPhone X opportunity when Apple decided to launch 3D sensing for facial recognition in September 2017.
Figure: 3D depth-sensing meets the Gartner Hype Cycle
Source: Gartner with edits by LightCounting
If all technologies follow the Gartner Hype Cycle, shown in the Figure above, then 3D sensing in smartphones is now moving up the slope of enlightenment. Android brands raced to add 3D sensing to their flagship phones in 2018 – the Xiaomi Mi8 Explorer and Oppo Find X phones were first – although these only sold in single digit million quantities. Huawei also brought out new phones with 3D sensing, but the ongoing U.S. export ban on the Chinese company must be hurting the company’s traction outside China. Apple continues to dominate the market as all new iPhones released by Apple since 2017 have included 3D sensing on the front of the phone. Apple is expected to introduce 3D sensing for ‘world-facing’ applications in 2020, which adds another laser chip to every phone.
Last year illumination for lidars were not included in our market forecast since LightCounting considered it unlikely that lidar would penetrate the consumer market to any great extent over the forecast period. All indicators now point to a market for lidar illumination ramping up in 2022 and beyond. Optical components firms are now shipping prototypes and samples of VCSELs, edge emitters and coherent lasers to customers developing next-generation lidar systems – many of them building on their expertise in illumination for optical communications and smartphones.
As was the case with smartphones, the foundations for lidar technology were laid down much earlier – in this case with the DARPA Challenge 2007, where the winning vehicle used a 64-laser lidar system from Velodyne Acoustics (now Velodyne Lidar). Lidar is considered by the majority of the industry to be an essential part of the sensor suite required for autonomous driving, helping the vehicle to navigate through the environment and detect obstacles in its path. The first commercial deployments have begun. In Germany, lidar on the Audi A8 enables the car to drive itself for limited periods under specific conditions. In Phoenix, Arizona, you can hail a ride in a Waymo robotaxi.
Investor enthusiasm for lidar is undeniable with nearly half a billion dollars invested in lidar start-ups in 2019 according to our analysis of publicly available investment data. Notable deals include $60 million for U.S. company Ouster in March, Israel’s Innoviz Technologies Series C round of $132 million in the same month, and $100 million for U.S.-based Luminar Technologies in July. Interestingly, these examples illustrate the variety of lidar approaches: each company is building a different type of lidar based on a different wavelength: 850nm for Ouster, 905nm for Innoviz and 1550nm in the case of Luminar. There’s an open technology battle and they can’t all be winners.
The automotive lidar market seems to be close to the peak of ‘inflated expectations’. It’s easy to understand why. The automotive industry is enormous, with nearly 100 million vehicles (including trucks) produced annually. Players like Baidu, GM Cruise and Waymo are backed by deep corporate pockets, and new entrants like Aurora and Pony.ai are attracting hundreds of millions in investment. Intel’s $15.3 billion purchase of Mobileye in 2017 was also directed at autonomous driving. Sensor company AMS is in a $4.8 billion battle to acquire German semiconductor lighting firm Osram with its eye firmly on lidar.
However, signs indicate that the descent into the trough of disillusionment could have already begun. Waymo has yet to roll out its robotaxi services more widely – and this summer admitted that its vehicles needed more testing in the rain. GM Cruise has delayed launch of commercial services for self-driving cars beyond 2019 and is reluctant to commit to a new timescale, with its CEO Dan Ammann observing that safety is paramount; automotive is not an industry where you can “move fast and break things” he said. A casualty of the slow pace was optical phased array lidar developer Oryx Vision, which closed its doors in August and started to hand money back to investors.
While lidar is being deployed commercially today, prices are not conducive to mass production, and there are open questions around regulation, safety, ethics and consumer acceptance. Do local laws prohibit self-driving cars? Will they really be safer than humans? Who is responsible for a crash? LightCounting remains skeptical about the pace of adoption of autonomous vehicles, but will be watching the market closely and with optimism.
More information on the report is available at: https://www.lightcounting.com/Sensing.cfm.