LightTrends Newsletter
Welcome to India Inc.! The RAN market is buoyant with a swelling local ecosystem that boasts big international ambitions
LightCounting/TÉRAL RESEARCH release India Wireless Infrastructure Report
Our latest report provides an update on the 5G radio access (RAN) developments in India, including geopolitics trends and technology. Like it did with 4G, Reliance Jio is rolling out 5G at a fast pace, followed by Bharti Airtel. As a result,1H23 RAN sales surged 300% YoY, and kept Ericsson in the driver’s seat, followed by Nokia and Samsung. Although the rollout pace has slowed down, 2023 is looking up, looks like the peak year, and we expect RAN equipment sales to more than double compared to last year, still driven by Jio and Airtel while BSNL will contribute with its 4G deployment.
“It’s a two-horse race, the near Jio / Airtel duopoly is quickly blanketing the country with 5G while the rest are struggling and catching up with 4G.” said Stéphane Téral, Chief Analyst at LightCounting Market Research and Founder of TÉRAL RESEARCH.
Our major findings in this very first edition of the India Wireless Infrastructure report are:
- 2024 is shaping up as a shift year from 5G network buildout to how to foster utilization and some midband FWA experiments.
- Due to the looming formation of a CSP duopoly, the looming merger of MTNL into BSNL, and Vodafone Idea’s unsustainable indebtment, our long-term forecast points to a lumpy RAN market. There is no surprise that India is a tough cellular market characterized by flat subscriber growth, ultralow ARPUs and low equipment average sales pricing.
- Open RAN is the brightest spot with a penetration of the total RAN market that will surpass 50% by 2028.
- At the same time, a mushrooming energetic local ecosystem is rising with great international ambitions enabled by strong ties between the U.S. and India.
About the report:
India Wireless Infrastructure report focuses on 5G developments in India, including traditional 4G and 5G RAN and open vRAN, geopolitics trends, Indian ecosystem, and technology. This report also includes cellular subscribers data by CSP, 4G and 5G BTS units and sales, a 5-year forecast for eNBs, gNBs, vCUs, vDUs, RUs, and RAN vendor market shares and analysis.
The India Wireless Infrastructure report is available for download by our clients.